Actuarial Congress 2025 - Pandemic Impact

Actuarial Congress 2025
On March 4, the Royal Tropical Institute (Koninklijk Instituut voor de Tropen) hosted the 21st edition of the Actuarial Congress, an important conference bringing together actuaries, academics and students from the university of Amsterdam to share knowledge about relevant themes in actuarial science. The theme of this year's congress was one of the most significant challenges facing the profession today: mortality rates and the long-term financial implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. The congress aimed to shed light on how the pandemic has changed mortality modeling and impacted the insurance and pension industries.

Structure of the day
The Actuarial Congress 2025 saw a diverse program, with plenary sessions, interactive debates, and networking. The congress committee chairwoman Angela van Heerwaarden opened the event with a speech and an overview of the key topics to be discussed throughout the day. The morning plenary sessions began with presentations by researchers from the University of Amsterdam. Dr. Frank van Berkum and Dr. Torsten Kleinow examined trends in excess mortality before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, providing data-informed projections on mortality throughout the nation. They were followed by an in-depth discussion by Thomas de Boer and Bertus Veurink of the insurance agency NN Group on the complexities of disability insurance pricing in the post-pandemic environment. Following a coffee break, attendees could attend interactive sessions by specialists from KPMG, De Nederlandsche Bank, and Achmea. Subjects ranged from crisis management and pandemic preparedness to the growing significance of data analytics in insurance risk analysis.  The congress resumed after lunch with Dr. Anja Schreijer from the Pandemic & Disaster Preparedness Center presenting an overview of the national COVID-19 response and its ongoing implications. During an afternoon session, Yannick Hiensch from Deloitte spoke about parallels between pandemic-induced financial risks and the evolving role of artificial intelligence in risk modeling. The session was concluded by a session “Looking Forward” moderated by Dr. Bas Kolen, professor of enterprise risk management from the University of Amsterdam, followed by closing remarks and a networking reception where attendees had the opportunity to share insights and perspectives.

Death Rates and COVID-19's Lasting Impact 
One of the leading themes of this year's congress was the changing patterns in mortality rates and the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on actuarial assumptions. Presentations focused on the persistence of excess mortality rates in the Netherlands, years after the height of the pandemic.

Understanding Excess Mortality
For example, according to statistics, excess mortality among men in the Netherlands has declined since 2020–2021, while it has remained constant among women. This suggests that long-term patterns in death rates may be changing which has important implications for insurers, pension funds, and policymakers, particularly in areas such as pricing risk, adjusting life expectancy assumptions, and planning future healthcare or retirement systems. Furthermore, experts noted that overall mortality rates continue to exceed pre-pandemic projections, which raises concerns about the accuracy of traditional forecasting models.
One of the biggest problems confronting actuaries is the problem of obtaining accurate mortality data in the midst of a global health crisis. The conventional method of modeling COVID-19-specific deaths has been moving towards utilizing excess mortality as a stronger marker. (This is to say, instead of simply considering deaths that have been officially attributed to COVID-19, actuaries are now considering excess mortality—the number of deaths above and beyond what would normally be expected. This is a more robust method of calculating the pandemic's true impact, as it also includes indirect effects such as delayed medical care, underlying health problems, and potential underreporting of COVID-related deaths.) Dr. Jens Robben of the University of Amsterdam spoke about how machine learning innovations were being applied to enhance mortality predictions, based on a broader range of environmental and epidemiological variables. 

Are Actuaries Underestimating Mortality Rates?
A crucial question asked at the congress was whether current actuarial models may be underestimating long-term mortality risks. Actuaries originally raised mortality rate projections to account for the spike in COVID-19 deaths. Once the immediate crisis eased, they lowered those projections on the premise that mortality rates would return to pre-pandemic levels. However, there are concerns that such models are not picking up the long-term effect of the pandemic. One of the significant causes of such uncertainty is the long-term health consequence of COVID-19. There are a substantial number of individuals who continue to experience complications, including long COVID and increased vulnerability to other illnesses, which can contribute to extended excess mortality. In addition, the uncertainty of the pandemic has exposed weaknesses in traditional actuarial modeling, which relies heavily on historical data. Although updates such as the AG2024 life expectancy model (a mortality projection table published by the royal dutch actuarial association) have attempted to incorporate a phased pattern of excess mortality, some experts think that even such updates may still underestimate residual risks.

Long-Term Impacts on Life Expectancy
To capture continued excess mortality, actuarial projection tables have been updated. The AG2024 life expectancy model now assumes a more gradual decline in excess mortality in the coming years. While the near-term financial impact on pension liabilities remains manageable, the long-term demographic impact caused by COVID-19 introduces new uncertainties.

Implications for the Insurance and Pension Industries
The congress reasserted the need for actuaries to review their risk models amidst a background of increased mortality volatility. Insurers, particularly those active in the health and disability markets, are already facing a surge in claims related to the long-term effects of COVID-19 and mental health disabilities. Meanwhile, pension funds, which had initially experienced short-term reductions in liabilities due to excess mortality, now must deal with increased uncertainty in longevity projections. That is, in adjusting the models for the new normal , predicting how long people will live in the future and in turn how much people need to save for future pension payouts become particularly challenging. A panel discussion led by Kees Thiers from Achmea and Frans Kuys from Finalyse considered how actuarial assumptions can be enhanced to aid financial stability. The panel emphasized the importance of stress testing for different pandemic scenarios and for integrating data-driven insights into risk management models.

Going Forward
The Actuarial Congress 2025 was especially informative in its discussion of how the COVID-19 pandemic has transformed mortality modeling and risk estimation throughout the actuarial profession. While the short-term dislocations caused by the pandemic are fading, its long-term effects on mortality trends, insurance risk, and pension planning remain at the forefront of industry concerns. As actuaries adapt to these shifting trends, conferences like the Actuarial Congress serve to foster cooperation and knowledge exchange. By integrating the lessons learned from COVID-19 into their models, actuaries can better anticipate future global health crises and population shifts, and ensure the stability of financial risk management in an increasingly uncertain world.

We look forward to seeing you at the next edition of the AC in 2026!